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Can Google predict the stock market? Tobias Preis at TEDxWarwickSalon (Technology)

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Tobias Preis is the Associate Professor of Behavioural Science & Finance at Warwick Business School. His recent research has aimed to carry out large scale experiments on complex social and economic systems by exploiting the volumes of data being generated by our interactions with technology. Preis received his PhD in Theoretical Physics from the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz in 2010 and draws on an interdisciplinary background in physics, economics, and computer science. He has authored more than 30 scientific publications, published a book about the physics of financial markets and acts as a reviewer for more than 15 leading international journals. Preis advises government agencies as well as private companies on potential exploitation of online digital traces. In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)
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Text Comments (101)
Patricia Warren (3 months ago)
Shut this off!
Adjag2 Studios (5 months ago)
Thank god for YouTube x2 speed option I think in this case x5 is needed
Alex Leighton (6 months ago)
There is a huge problem with this study: The hindsight bias of knowing that debt was the cause of the crash and the extent to which debt was a problem in 08. Effectively what this is doing is shorting the dow in 08 and going long other times. I would be interested how this algorithm preforms from 09 -12 vs the dow. Rather than just seeing how it shorts 08 when everyone is googling debt. Or for comparison maybe choose to test on 98 - 2006 - at least this would control for a crash not completely based around debt. In reality this strategy is just telling us something we already know - there was a debt crisis in 2008.
Bhaskar Tripathi (7 months ago)
A simple multiple linear regression problem with searched keywords being used as one variable in the regression equation. What's the big deal ? The video could be of not more than 5 mins to explain this.
• Riftis • (11 months ago)
This is a very primitive means of predicting the market, manually putting in words and seeing what the result is. Put a supercomputer to the task with all the information at hand, and allow it operate beyond just individual word searches and find correlations between multiple words/phrases and market movements and allow it the freedom to learn how to best respond to these things to maximize profits and you'll be rich. I wouldn't be surprised if people are already secretly doing this.
dipika sur (1 month ago)
We may not be. But big players had already done it I guess
Maruti Nandan (7 months ago)
• Riftis • I am just learning about ai and data sets to do this I think you would need some massive computing power, I don't know if we are there yet but it still fascinates me.
Joshua Smith (11 months ago)
At 1.5x speed this is still too slow...
John Thompson (1 year ago)
Been pondering using sentiment and public opinion as a neural input on a trading model, and I have come to the conclusion that it's not significant. People have already voted, and that's reflected in price. Measuring the sentiment of mostly ineffectual people, as a input to speculative trading, it seems almost pointless. I agree there may be value in trading noise, but they have almost no effect (it would seem) of the real things that move markets. In other words, I prefer to align my (longer term) trades with fact, not opinion. Also, any suggestion that the public is always wrong (or right) is nearly baseless. Discuss
GlobeTravel (1 year ago)
Never thought that Akshay Khanna would be knowing so much about financial markets.
Cesar Romo (1 year ago)
Speed up by 1.25-1.5 if you don't want to lose your attention span and still get the information
Pedro Alb (1 year ago)
This was great, thanks, I've been looking for "how to forecast stock prices" for a while now, and I think this has helped. Ever heard of - Sanames Stockify Scripophily - (do a search on google ) ? Ive heard some pretty good things about it and my mate got excellent success with it.
Rhona Maskell (1 year ago)
it's not too much trouble for your own particular advantage, any place you go over declarations of traders who work with Mrs casey's strategy, trust it,I use to have such a great amount of uncertainty until I reached her, I am winning what I believed was inconceivable,rather than questioning,get in touch with her and see for your self. [email protected] com
Marcus Dante (1 year ago)
I have high level of confidence trading with Mrs casey's strategy cos of the steady growth i am making on every trade. I never thought i would go this far in a short while. I am very grateful
Jenny Zigrino (1 year ago)
oh Collins youve also tried this strategy, wow i though i was alone, i was amazing the rate at which my profits are racking up since i started using this system
Roxane Hayward (1 year ago)
I will highly recommend you to contact Mrs Casey directly on ([email protected]) for best advice and instruction for the right strategy to use in real trading account.
Patrique D'limi (1 year ago)
I recommend Mrs Casey for everyone experiencing failure or stress. You will enjoy success working with her
Patrique D'limi (1 year ago)
Mrs casey has a very good optimized strategy that gives 95% accurate signals and earns me a monthly payout of £19,000 to £21,000
washfi (1 year ago)
he s selling....nobody can pricdict the stock market crases....he is selling his materials big data
Patel Vidhu (1 year ago)
There are many sign of bull market beginning and bear market beginning. Google knows them and sometimes it shows people.
kuzmanovic2D (1 year ago)
saiboT | Tobias
Ahmed Ahmed (1 year ago)
Use 1.5x speed.
Exception Handler (2 months ago)
okay sergey
Songtsen Gampo (5 months ago)
I used 1.25
Rd G (1 year ago)
This sounds like a school project
All of this stuff helps influence the markets maybe even more than they can predict them..
Chung Lee (1 year ago)
Stan G (1 year ago)
Yes, of course Warwick, you can predict radical uncertainty, unexpected shock, and human irrationality with past data. The formula is y^ = b0+b1x(t-1)+(please go back to YouTube analytics + focus on the next viral video)
gcgrabodan (11 months ago)
nooo nooo it has to be b0^and b1^
saurav kumar (1 year ago)
I did my final year academic project on Financial predication using artificial neural network(ANN) . In this project we applied Functional Link ANN( FLANN),having different expansion for the prediction of two different indices. We collected some old data from BSE and feed it into the network. The learning process was repeated over 3000 times and the entire simulation was done on Mat lab software.
Mayank Priyedershi (1 year ago)
saurav kumar and the result was ?
Victor H Glez R (1 year ago)
Lie until proven wrong
Learning Super (1 year ago)
What's the results? Why would anyone interested in your model when you don't even show the results?
farceadentus (1 year ago)
saurav kumar and??? What's the conclusion? Was it successful or a failure?
Glenn møller (2 years ago)
only stupid poeple wants to get rich. the wise poeple are already rich. i see most poeple commenting this have got the focus on the money and not on information presententet. Remember that wisdom gives you a great well paid job wich makes you financialy happy... or unhapppy.. it depends on how you decide to use the money you earn and how adicted you are to having money. Using the google information to get welthy requires that you can handle the huge information amount and no human can handle it all on it´s own. this means it is only usefull for machines in now a days. for that reason we got neural networks and work on making computeres faster and faster wich can help making decissions based on big information... but in the end... it does not work if poeple like me are idiots at programming those networks. the interresting thing in this conferrence is that the information needed is out there , but it needs to get treated the right way. computeres are already trading with this inforrmation.... so the real questiuons is just....should private poeple try to beat computers or not.... i know that computers are so much smarter tahn the human so my answer is NO. spend your money on living instead and take a real job you can control. Let the smart guys beat you as they always will. ;)
letYourMoneyGrow.com (2 years ago)
Predict the stock market? Technology? Associate Professor of Behavioural Science & Finance? OK, scientific research IS (or at least MAY BE) useful for performance (a good example is Renaissance Technologies). But finally it is the track record, what matters. That's why my motto: show me your track record first and if it is impressive and you are so generous that you disclose something about your strategy, I will capture every word of yours. But if you don't have a track record, sorry, you can talk whatever you want, no interest from my side!
Forex885 (2 years ago)
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Cityj0hn (2 years ago)
holy damn this guy is boring.
Zes (11 months ago)
wrong,idts. no such thing as borix or not about it, u r
Mark Williams (2 years ago)
If you want to win over 85% of your trades and make over 200 dollars/day trading options online then go here: HootStocks. com
Daniel Webster (2 years ago)
Mark, I'd take some of that cash and get a haircut, or at least have your spam name match your stolen image.
Benjamin Xiong (2 years ago)
There are probably a lot of useful information here but my attention span won't even last 5 seconds without getting lost or bored of him.
Felipee Rincon (2 years ago)
Have you ever seen a stock trader with a lot of hair after the 35-40s?
ki5ngau (2 years ago)
I am 48 year old, work as a data scientist at a big bank, also day trade on the side on my phone and still have a set of hair. I can still out bballing 70% of recent college grads that my company hires. LOL
Amit Dayal (2 years ago)
system will not work if everybody knows
Hilda Graham (2 years ago)
Very good trading video. I personally make about 200 dollars each day net profit trading online. If you want a free consultation on how I do this send me an email here: [email protected] com
Carl George (2 years ago)
Well yeah... I play poker online and I can tell ALLL about what people will do. I starting with the choice of their picture and then go to what details are in the picture. I can tell so much about them that I win the games if I stay. Sometimes I get bored and get out of the game. PEOPLE ARE SO PREDICTABLE. ALLLLL PEOPLE. ALLL
Glenn møller (2 years ago)
haha, i play too but i only win when my ego is in control....how often do you play and how many hours a week. by that info i can tell how good you really are
MrFourkinghell (2 years ago)
wow, what a collection of banal comments. Clearly the content went over the heads of those commenting. Presumably they are looking for some kind of spoon feeding. Presentation is statistically sound,undeniable, impressive use of big data.
Akira Renbokoji (1 year ago)
Why not just say you are doing this through Affiliate Marketing or are you sharing the specific techniques, scripts, and apps you use? Genuinely curious, unless there is a different user that disappeared from Pokemon Trading and suddenly reappeared a few months ago to do Affiliate Marketing.
Hilda Graham (2 years ago)
Very good trading video. I personally make about 200 dollars each day net profit trading online. If you want a free consultation on how I do this send me an email here: [email protected] com
Vane Fal (2 years ago)
My question is why this guy isn't a millionaire using his work?
BillyViBritannia (1 year ago)
so the only one who can use this system is google... hence the title. Can they though? I would expect google to be even bigger than they are if they could...
Alexander Her (1 year ago)
noob hacker
Hack Empire (1 year ago)
Technology has empowered everybody..its really as big as you can make it and goes as far as you can take it..People are getting in contact with hackers to help them predict the stock market,clear student loans,expunge criminal records,upgrade university grades,bank accounts and other debts,fix credit ratings,double your tax return and help hack business competitors..contact [email protected] You need a savvy hacker though,one who would be able to carry out and successfully execute hacks on your behalf while keeping it all discrete and under the radar.
Mateus Zuliani (1 year ago)
he does not have access to that information in real time. All the data he used was historical. Google doesn't even allow you to do too many searches on the same term in an hour (I wrote a C# program for that and almost got my IP blocked. This kind of thing is called data scraping). I believe that if someone could use real time google information (Like a "real time google trends") it'd be possible to profit with a similar strategy as the one presented in the video.
iwantit162 (2 years ago)
billion dollar ideas whilst wearing a 20 dollar suit and dayum get a hair stylist bud.ok so looking for profitable terms on google has brought you success? ffs never do the search for how often people type in porn youd be a overnight gazillionaire
Kenneth Ezell (3 years ago)
Fake ass accent
Jan Zacharias (2 years ago)
Kenneth Ezell its a german accent, im from germany i can tell
Awsome4649 (2 years ago)
Paul Rond (3 years ago)
So basically we should go long on pewdiepie?
Audiostoke (1 year ago)
Market manipulation!
J̷i̷z̷z̷o̷ (1 year ago)
what is pewdiepie and when should we go long?
frosecold (1 year ago)
Man you were wrong
the sound is really BAD!! for god sake.. be professional wtf?
mrnogood (3 years ago)
Is there a way that the general public can download the algorithm software that you used to collect your data?
onee (3 years ago)
I actually look the Google Trends up, and looked up the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. But it doesn't work. I don't know why he claims this. Maybe it only works when it is really going bad with the economy.
gmshadowtraders (4 years ago)
This is fascinating. Can his Google team check any combination of terms against subsequent stock market moves? I'm thinking 'ISIS', 'Ukraine', 'Ebola' and so on may be quite successful. But 'Dollar Crash' might be the one which is the black swan event lol.
oracleofottawa (4 years ago)
Doctor Strangelove had a son!!
Haha first thing I did was ctrl+f strangelove ...
Bryan Wheelock (2 years ago)
Tis Toni (4 years ago)
so did the authors make any money out of this?
Dan Lewis (5 years ago)
THIS IS POOP...until I can SHARE it! I don't know exactly why I'm being constrained from SHARING this video, but it sure is stupid!! This is data others need to be aware of!! Beep it and whoever has limited its sharing! ;/
Virginie Erckelboudt (3 years ago)
+onee ire yeuxud
onee (3 years ago)
+Dan Lewis How can someone this stupid be so full of himself. Maybe you should learn to properly articulate what you mean before make a fool of yourself. But apparently you stopped going to school after elementary school. No wonder you sound so fucking stupid.
Dan Lewis (3 years ago)
Give yourself a big prize for being the stupidest person online today. You STILL haven't thought about it. Yeah, you can type, but you apparently can't think. It must suck to be you. Did you ever think that perhaps at the time I first mentioned it, it WASN'T shareable? I mean really, how truly stupidly lazy are you? Actually, I don't care, but you should. Get a brain, and leave me alone, idiot. This is the second time I've told you to leave me alone. I'm reporting your stupid ass. Grow up, stupid.  Thanks.
Dan Lewis (3 years ago)
I know this is going to be tough for you...but I'm going to ask you to actually use your brain for a moment. Did you think about this at all before asking another for the answer?  Did you consider the various possibilities? I don't think you did. Go ahead and think about it for a while, and maybe several possible answers will come to you...or not.
onee (3 years ago)
+Dan Lewis What are you talking about? You can share it.

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