Future retail trends in Mexico, Latin America. How retail trends are changing. Notes on Futurist keynote lecture by Patrick Dixon for Samsung client event in Mexico -- audience of computers, mobile phones and electrical appliance retailers from Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Venezuala, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Salvador, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Panama.
Latin America Economic Outlook
Mexico, Brazil and the US have marched almost in step together from 2003 to 2014, in timing of the 2009 economic crisis, the sharp partial recovery in 2010, and the gradual growth in GDP since, which in the case of Brazil was close to 4% in 2013.
The truth is that the global economy never stopped growing because of the engine of Far East emerging economies, including India and China. We have seen astonishing growth in nations like Vietnam, and the entire region will continue to power into the future, sustained by the growth of their own middle class, and by pushing up the value of manufacturing from low grade goods to world class products.
Growth of e-commerce in Latin America
If you want to see the future of online retail in Latin America, just take a look at North America, Europe or Asia.
70 million people are already online in Mexico (58% of adults), 88 million in Brazil (46%), 28 million in Argentina (67%), 10 million in Chile (59%) and 10 million in Peru (34%).
While it is true that in these nations, most consumers are still very uncomfortable about buying online, that is changing fast.
Compare with the UK where 33% of some groups of people have stopped watching conventional TV because they only watch TV online, and where 12% of all retail is now online shopping, of which over 50% of purchases are using a mobile device.
Global e-commerce hits $1.5 trillion in 2014
Online sales will exceed $1.5 trillion in 2014, of which $100bn will be in Latin America, $6.2bn in Mexico (up 40% in a year). Most of Latin America's online sales are on websites owned by traditional retailers.
And sales per online user each year are also growing fast -- averaging $578 across Latin America: $854 in Mexico, $717 in Brazil and $380 in Argentina.
How are people paying? With low penetration of credit cards and bank cash cards, newer payment systems are booming. PayPal for example has seized 52% of all online payments in Mexico.
Expect Mobile boom in Latin America retailing
Mexico will see 6 million new mobile users in 2013 -- reaching around 30% of the population, the highest in Latin America. 30 million people in Mexico already own a smartphone -- up 49% in a year -- and 60% of 25-34 year olds are using smartphones.
The Android operating system is now installed on over 70% of all new smartphones in Latin America, winning market share mainly from Blackberry during 2012 and 2013. Mobile use influenced 72% of all retail sales in Brazil in 2013, among phone owners, according to Cisco. Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in the UK in 2013. Location -- based marketing is the next big thing
Futurist keynote speaker, Patrick Dixon - author 15 books on global trends and Chairman of Global Change Ltd - is an international inspirational lecturer, and expert, on leadership, management, supply chain, innovation, trends analysis and business strategy. He has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50).
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